Thursday, June 30, 2005

Creative Technology @ $11.20

Extract fm OCBC dated 28-Jun,

Last night, Creative issued a profit warning stating that it now expects to incur an operating loss in the June quarter due to softer than expected overall demand for MP3 players and lower than expected average selling prices. Creative now expects sales to come in at approximately US$300m as compared to its previous guidance of between US$330m to US$360m. Furthermore, gross margin is now expected to come in below 20%, much lower than the group's original guidance of between 22% to 24%. Since our last report when we warned about escalating competition in the MP3 player market, Creative's share price has dropped 24.2% to close at S$12.50. Following the profit warning, its ADR dropped a further 11% last night, to the equivalent of S$11.00. We have reduced our numbers and now expect Creative to report losses of US$4.0m in 4Q05 and US$19.4m in FY06. We value Creative at S$10.0 (from US$14.0) or about 0.8x FY06F P/NTA. Our below book valuation reflects our view of a distinct possibility of future inventory write-offs as a result of the much lower than expected sales and gloomy outlook going forward. We maintain our Sell recommendation.

Maintain Sell. Since our last report, Creative's share price has dropped 24.2% to close at S$12.50. Following the profit warning, its ADR dropped a further 11% last night, to the equivalent of S$11.00. With the revision in our forecasts, we now value Creative at S$10.00 (from S$14.00), or about 0.8x FY06F P/NTA on our lowered book value to take into account the potential of inventory write offs. The share price also needs to factor in the possibility of much lower than expected sales and a gloomy profit outlook going forward. As such, we maintain our SELL recommendation.

Report fm OCBC dated 28-Jun here
They recommend, Maintain SELL with Fair Value of $10.00

Report fm Kim Eng dated 28-Jun here
They recommend, Maintain SELL with 6-mth target of $9.00

Report fm UOB-KayHian dated 30-Jun also recommended SELL, with fair price at $9.48; email me if u need this report (ppl i know only). Summary here

Previous Post: Creative

Comment : Creative will need at least a couple of quarters to get out of this mess. Better wait and see what they plan to do after they announce their actual losses for this quarter. If you are holding this counter, good luck to you. It may be better to sell now on any technical rebound and buy back later when all the bad news are out and prices has stabilised.


Disclaimer : Do not rely on our comments. Make your own decision at your own risk.

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

STX Pan Ocean IPO

Open date and time for Public Offer : 28 June 2005, 1700Hrs
Closing date and time for Public Offer : 07 July 2005, 1200Hrs
Application Balloting Result : 08 July 2005
Start Trading : 14 July 2005, 0900Hrs
Maximum Price per Share : S$1.27
PE : Around 7X (Based on 2004 Earning per share)

Current Dividend Policy:
- Dividend pay-out ratio for the year end 31 Dec 05 is expected to be at least 30% of profit after tax for the year ending 31 Dec 05;
- current desire to maintain dividend payout ratio within the overall objective of maximizing shareholder value over the longer term
- pay an annual dividend with respect to a finanical year, the dividend payment will generally be paid in the first or second quarter of the following financial year.

Point to Note:
- In the past, the dividend will be declared and paid dividends in Korean Won. After the completion of the offering, dividend will be declared and paid in U.S dollars.
- Payment will be made in U.S. dollars to the CDP and CDP will then convert such proceeds into Singapore dollars. Amount of Singapore dollars payable to shareholder wil be affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate between Singapore dollar and the U.S. dollar.
Finanical Note: From the finanical information, the sale and profit has been increasing and the cost of sale has been decreasing for the three years.For more information, please refer to the prospectus

How to Apply:
  • Apply at ATMs of DBS, PSOB, UOB, or OCBC
  • Internet Banking at www.dbs.com or www.uob.com.sg
  • Printed application forms
Previous Post: STX Pan Ocean

Action: With the low PE and the good track record in the past few years, I think I will apply for the IPO. Look like a better deal than those earlier IPO offers this year.

Disclaimer : Use the above information at your own risk! We'll not be responsible for any losses incurred.

Monday, June 27, 2005

SingTel @ $2.69

Found a chart at CNA Forum,


According to that post, 2.67-8 will be next entry point to buy :D

Previous Post: SingTel@2.70

Thursday, June 23, 2005

STX Pan Ocean

Recently, there were quite a number of advertisments on the STX Pan Ocean. It really created an impact on me to find out more about this company. I happened to find out from Today newspaper that it is planning an IPO in Singapore. It plans to price its share on 8 July and start trading on Singapore Exchange on 14 July. It will be the first Korean company to be listed in Singapore. The Prospectus can be found at MAS right now.

Comment: KK, you were asking me about STX the other day. Hope this information is useful to you and let us know what you feel about this IPO. I check out the prospectus already and there are 265 pages. Without much financial knowledge background, I really don't know what to look out for. Maybe you can share with us your view and how to retrieve the critical information from the prospectus. Thanks a lot.

Mapletree REIT IPO

According to Today newspaper, Mapletree investment is going to file its prospectus (REIT) with MAS next week. There is an indication the yield is about 6 per cent and higher but the downside is the small size of the issue. Expected price of the share is between $0.65 and $0.70. For additional information, please keep track of the IPO at MAS website

Comment: I think there will be a huge demand for the REIT IPO as the recent REIT IPOs were well received and if the source of information is correct, then the yield is one of the best compared to the present lot of Singapore REIT. Furthermore, due to the small size of issue, it will be quite difficult to get the IPO through balloting but I think I will apply for it. Wait till next week for more detail information. :)

Singtel @ 2.70

Since the news that Singtel did not manage win the Pakistan Telcom bid, the price of the share has been climbing from $2.62 to $2.70 (about 3%) in this week. Investors are rushing to buy Singtel share with the expectation that the money will be return to shareholder as a form of dividend. The price of 2.70 is one of the highest ($2.73) in past one year. I had decided to sell all my Singtel share that I had bought using CPF to lock in the profit. Manage to sell at $2.70 for the odd lot of share due to capital reduction and the rest at $2.71. Will be monitoring the share closely to check whether there is any chance to buy back when it dip. :)

Previous Post on Same Subject: Singtel and Singtel@2.62

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Creative Technology

Yet another chart fm ShareKing,



Another Chart for TC to comment :)

Report fm GKGoh dated 25-April here
Report fm OCBC dated 22-April here
Report fm Kim Eng dated 22-April here

All 3 recommended SELL when the share price was $16+. OCBC stated a fair value of $14, which is the Book Value. Kim Eng had a 6-mth tgt price of $12.50.

Comments : I am not vested here but am looking to buy some Creative shares. However, as there's been a change in Creative business strategy, to focus on MP3 business, I have put that on hold. Reasons being their MP3 business is not growing (stagnant at 2Mil sets for last 2 Quarters), Low Margin (3%+ vs 15% previously) and Large Inventories (2mths) buildup. I'll wait for their next Quarter results for directions.

SGS - Singapore Government Securities

Introduction
Not happy with your Fixed Deposit Rate of 1.5% (need $50k just to get this rate)? Unwilling to take the risk for POTENTIAL higher returns in various kinds of schemes that the banks are always trying to sell you? Treasury Bills (T-Bills) issued by the Singapore Government may be the choice for you. Current 3-mths T-Bills are giving a yield of ~2%. You get better rates than FD, min. investment amt is ONLY $1000, short 3-mth tenure (you can also sell in the open mkt before 3-mth) and it's virtually risk-free as it's guaranteed by the govt, therefore capital protection :)

SGS
All SGS, whether T-Bills or Government Bonds, are sold in lots of $1,000. T-Bills have a tenure of either 3 months or 1 year, never pay coupons (akin to interest rate), and are always sold at a discount. Government bonds are sold with maturities of 1, 2, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years. They always pay coupons, and may be issued at a discount, at par or even at a premium.

Where, When and How To Buy
You can buy SGS from any of the local banks. There are no admin or custodian fees involved. Banks earn NOTHING (they are legally REQUIRED to process your orders as it's one of the requirements to be a Primary Dealer) when you buy SGS at issue ie. when the Singapore Government first sells the SGS. The banks do earn from a spread when they buy and sell existing SGS on the open market. When you buy at issue there is no accumulated interest to be paid, nor any transaction fee. Since the Singapore Government regularly issues SGS, there's little reason to buy on the open market and pay commissions.

The first time you buy SGS through the bank, you'll need to open a custodian account (a form to fill) with the bank. To buy new issues, you need to fill in another form to bid. Either bid (for competitive bids) something close to the going rate or pick the "non-competitive bid" which guarantees a successful application. If you bid, the difference is usually only 0.05% at most, and you risk being unsuccessful.

3-month T-bills are issued every Monday and bids must be submitted before 12noon. Check the SGS website for details.

My Experience
I just bought mine at a OCBC neighbourhood branch (heard from others that DBS will likely refer you to apply at their Shenton Way HQ). Applications closes on Mondays at 12noon and in my case, 20-Jun. Monies will be deducted from my bank acct on 23-Jun (I pre-signed all the forms when I went to the bank on a Sat.) The tenure of the T-Bill is fm 23-Jun to 22-Sep. Yield is at 1.96137363% (yes, the decimal points are for real) for the non-competitive bid, meaning, it's sold at a discount of 99.511 ie. for $1000 worth of T-Bills, you pay $995.11 and you'll get back $1000 at maturity.

Credit : Much of the above information is gleaned fm WallStraits Buffett Forum

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

SPH

The chart is fm ShareKing
Perhaps our TA (Technical Analysis) expert, TC, can contribute his valuable comments.





Kim Eng Report dated 20-May-05 here

At $4.38, Kim Eng recommended BUY maintained.
Forecast FY05 dividend yield of 8.7% remains a key attraction. As at 1HFY05, the group held S$780m in investible funds (at cost before provision). SPH trades at FY05/06 PE of 13.4x and 16.6x. RNAV is S$6.10 per share, based on a DCF valuation of the group’s core newspaper operations of S$4.88, non-core assets of S$1.06, and cash holdings of S$0.16.

Comments : SPH is one of the core hldgs in my portfolio, forming >25% of my local stocks. My average cost (does not take into acct past year dividends and monies received due to capital reduction) is $4.80 as I have some which were bought in Year 2000 when prices were rather high. Still, I like SPH as it offers good yield and will continue to accumulate or trade when the opportunity arises. Current tgt price is $4.28 or lower as I had recently bought at 4.48 cd and 4.38 xd.

REIT

Got this fm UOB-KayHian,

With the recent drop in long-term yields, interest in REITs could receive a further boost. On top of that, Singapore has been trying to promote REITs. Recently, MAS announced a list of proposals to provide REITs with more flexibility in terms of gearing (increase to 60% and overseas expansion (can take partial ownership) while at the same time encourage more disclosure (on tenants, leases, etc).


DPU growth via acquisitions is best for industrial sector. So far, A-REIT has been the only player in the industrial REIT space and has enjoyed DPU growth via acquisitions. Although new entrants like MapleTree (logistics) and existing REITs like CapitaComm Trust (CCT) will increase competition in this space, A-REIT is likely to enjoy its first-mover advantage for now.

Overseas expansion: The next step. While the Singapore-listed REITs with the exception of Fortune REIT (Hong Kong-based assets) have all their assets in Singapore, the potential to drive DPU growth via acquisitions and asset enhancement is getting slimmer. Overseas expansion will thus be the next growth catalyst and CCT, CapitaMall Trust and A-REIT are best positioned for that move.

A-REIT looks the best. Fortune has the highest yield among all the REITs and Suntec REIT has the highest yield among the Singapore-based REITs. But on a gearing adjusted basis relative to the respective 10-year bonds, A-REIT is equally good. Given that A-REIT can still drive acquisition-led growth for a while and is better positioned to go overseas, it is possibly the best pick among the REITs.

My Comments : REITs are here to stay as an alternative form of investment. It provides good yield stability, without too much volatility in share price. However, fm a high of 8%+ when the first REIT appeared in our mkt, the local REITs are now going for 4-5% yield. Fortune, a HK REIT is better, at 5%+ yield as currency risk is involved. With the risk free rate now at 2% (Govt Bonds) and likely to continue to go up, REITs at current yield are not that attractive. I expect a min. yield of 5%, although I'd prefer it to be higher. If you do plan to invest in REITs, pls do compare the Yield vs Risk Free rate, as a drastic increase in bank interest rate will likely cause the share price of REITs to drop (so that yield remains attractive relative to bank interest rate).

Currently, I am vested in CCT A @ 1.38 (New Shares Offer in Apr) and Suntec (IPO @ $1 and bot @ $1.25 on 17-Jun). I plan to reduce my hldgs in CCT unless yield improves and buy more Suntec REITs.

Capitaland

I bought some last year because there were a lot of hype about this stock with properties in China and Australia and was still a laggard and cheapeast amongst the lights of CDL, Keppeland,Singland.

Greedy, still holding it thinking I might get some goodies in the form of MapleTree some other distributable REITS or maybe some casino fever may drive it sky high.

Saw Kim Eng's report that says the current RNAV is $2.12 and that its trading at 8% premium.This prompted me to check out what made him arrive at RNAV of $2.12.

(1) Took the balance sheet: (net asset - minority interest) / total ordinary shares and walah .... came up to $2.12 !!
(2) At $2.30 Trailing PER is 18.8. STill thinking, how can I project its 2005 earnings .... Any1 can shed some light.
(3) The property index is way higher that STI !

So from the quantitative aspect this analyst is right ....

Monday, June 20, 2005

SingPost @ 0.995

SingPost has hit a record high of $0.995 since IPO ($0.60) at this moment. Another half a cent and it will hit the one dollar mark. A new remarkable achievement for this stock. It has been rising steadily ever since that it had decided not to purchase ACCS. Well, it is a good decision by the management or else ACCS will drag down SingPost share. The AGM will be at the end of this month. A good dividend stock, which I don't mind keeping for a long period of time :).

SingTel

BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (T48.SG) is eyeing a stake in TOT Corp. (TOT.YY) to become a strategic partner, Bangkok Post reports.

SingTel will likely buy the shares in the Thai state-run telecommunication company's initial public offering, but will first have to consult Thailand's Finance Ministry, the major shareholder of TOT, the paper says citing a TOT source.

Finance Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has outlined a plan to sell a 30% stake, or 180 million shares, in TOT through an IPO around November, the paper says. The source told the paper that the partnership will help TOT cope with increased competition after the market is liberalized next year.

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Singtel @ 2.62

New source from Dow Jones mentioned that Turkcell (Turkey's leading mobile telephone operator) has decided not to bid in Pakistan Tel Privatization. Currently, potential suitors are China Mobile(Hong Kong) Ltd, Telecom Malaysia(Malaysia), Singtel(Singapore), Kuwait Mobile, Emirates Telecommunication, Saudi Oger and Saudi Telecom. The winner of the bid will have management control of the company.

Comment: I think it will be the second company that Singtel will have management control if they win the bidding. The one first is Optus as the rest of the acquisition in Asean region is only a stake in the company. I think it will be a good acquistion for Singtel as the penetration rate is low and it would increase their oversea profit. (Let hope it does not over pay and the market react by dumping Singtel Stock)

Friday, June 17, 2005

Hello !

I just joined :D

In this blog, I'll be sharing with you the fllwg,

1) News and Reports of Stocks that I have or am interested in. Some of these are,
  • SPH
  • REITs
  • Creative Technology
  • SingTel
  • PBank (M'sia Stock)

2) Useful Investment info I happen to come across

3) Analysts' Reports which I find informative

I'll usually give my comments and indicate my vested interest, if any. Pls do not be unduly influenced by my comments as I am not a trained professional in the area of investing. Pls do your own detailed research before you make any decision to buy / sell.

Best Regards and "May the Bull be with You!"

KK :D

Hello

Welcome to BullRun Blog Site. This site is created for the member to discuss about share and other investment tips. If you find any posting interesting, please feel free to comment.